EARLY in development

Every headline, matched to every prediction market, before the odds move.

EARLY reads the news as it lands and flags which markets it touches, and which way. You get the flag and the timestamp.

illustrative demonot real market data
Fed wire / RSS14:02
Fed governor signals openness to December cut in unscheduled remarks
Fed cuts rates in December?
YES ↑conf 0.88
41¢
FLAGGED14:02:11
+0m 00s
MOVED14:16:40
Early by
+14m29s
flagged 14:02:11
moved   14:16:40

One flag, two timestamps.

The whole product is the gap between when a headline was flagged and when the odds actually moved. Here is what happens in between.

  1. 14:02:09

    A headline lands

    News wires, RSS feeds, filings and official statements are read the moment they publish, around the clock.

  2. 14:02:11

    It gets matched and flagged

    Each headline is checked against every open market: does this affect it, which direction, how confident. Anything above the bar is flagged with a timestamp.

  3. 14:16:40

    The odds move, or they don't

    Every flag is logged next to what the market did afterwards. Early, late, wrong, or no move at all. All of it stays on the record.

Built for people who already trade these markets.

Prediction market traders

You can't read every feed against thousands of open markets. EARLY can, and tells you which ones to look at.

People who follow the long tail

Big headlines are priced in seconds. The thin, specific markets are where a relevant story can sit unnoticed.

Researchers and forecasters

A timestamped log of which news touched which question is useful on its own, trade or no trade.

Not for you if you want a bot that trades

EARLY flags. It doesn't place orders, manage money or tell you what to do with a flag.

Straight answers.

Is this financial advice?

No. EARLY tells you that a headline looks relevant to a market and which way it points. What you do with that is your call and your risk. Prediction markets can lose you money, and they aren't legal everywhere.

Do you show misses?

Yes. Every flag is logged with its outcome, including the ones where nothing moved or the market went the other way. A track record with only hits in it isn't a track record.

Is there a track record yet?

Not a public one. The product is being built, and the animation on this page is an illustration, not real data. The log goes public when there is enough of it to mean something.

When can I use it?

It's being built now. People on the waitlist get access first, and one email when that happens.

Which markets?

The plan is to start with the largest public prediction market platforms and widen from there. The waitlist email will say exactly what's covered at launch.

What do you do with my email?

Send you the access email. It isn't sold or shared, and you can ask for it to be deleted at any time.

Get the access email first.

Leave an address. You'll hear from us once, when it opens.